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The story of every piece of land is one of conflict over ownership. I have the luxury of typing these words in a coffee shop in northern Hamilton County. I'm leasing it from the proprietor for the cost of a cup of joe. The business rents it from a landlord who bought it from someone, who in turn bought it from someone, who in turn got this bit of land where I'm sitting right now from a land grant from some regional provisional government, who effectively seized it from an indigenous tribe called the Lenape [1].

That's how most Americans see the Israel-Palestine conflict [2]. There's a group that was there first, and they are the ones with the primary claim to the land.

And because more than one group believes it has the claim to the land because they were there first then we've had lots and lots of conflict. Total deaths since 1948 in this region due to this conflict are somewhere around 150,000.

This brings us to the present day.

We are not going to reach answer about Israel and Palestine using simple logic, at least not one based on history. Instead we have to ask ourselves a more important question about our available options and their potential outcomes. First, we must identify those choices:

1. The United States can decrease support for Israel.
2. The United States can increase support for Israel.
3. The United States can continue supporting Israel support, as we have done for generations [3].

(Support, in this case, is not just financial: the US tends to back Israel at the UN; the US refuses to recognize Palestine as a country; and the US is Israel's biggest customer representing about 25% of their export economy [4].)

If we withdraw from our special relationship [5] with Israel, I believe Israel will become more aggressive. Imagine the US as holding Israel back from engaging their full military might. This is the language our State Department uses [6]. If we back off, Israel takes off the gloves. And that would be very, very bad.

However, if we ramp up support, sending them more weapons and providing more international cover for Israel's actions, we're going to lose key allies and make new enemies all over the world. The carnage will spread farther and become more horrific. Countless more will die and suffer. And that too, would be very, very bad.

If we maintain our current course, we can expect the situation to remain the same. Which, if you're keeping track, is only very bad.

That doesn't mean we can't try new approaches or be more innovative. But we have to maintain our commitment to trade and financial and yes military support to Israel. Keeping this promise is prerequisite to keeping the conflict in check.

The world as it is presents us with options. America's relationship with Israel is one where there are only bad choices. We're not making a great one today, but any other path would be even worse.

Let's accept the reality we have and work together to make a better reality in the months and years to come.

[1] “Effectively” because there was a treaty. And in the 1800s at least, because the Lenape were “pushed” westward in the 1700s from where they had settled in what is now the northeastern United States. Before that the Miami, Potawatomi, and Shawnee tribes lived here. It's not clear how much conflict there was between these groups. But before that the Mississippian culture flourished from around 800 CE to 1600 CE. Before that, there was the Hopewell tradition dating from 100 BCE to around 500 CE. And before that there were people associated with the Folsom tradition and Clovis cultures but we really don't know much about them or how much they were in the place I'm now having coffee and writing this.

[2] Or as I think we ought to call it, the Abrahamic Conflict. This eons-long cold-and-hot war is a religious war. It is about which religions—and their associated peoples—have the right to exist.

[3] About $150 billion in aid since 1946, more than any other country the US assists.

[4] https://oec.world/en/profile/country/isr

[5] That is seriously what it is called.

[6] https://www.axios.com/2024/06/25/us-warned-hezbollah-israel-escalation